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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.