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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Team Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test side being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a much more significant change with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a history of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, coming around the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.